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6

Sea Her Excel

3yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 67

Pontefract · FBS Chartered Accountants Chaplins Club Handicap · 5f 3y

#4

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has made all in fast-ground handicaps at Wetherby (5.5f) and Ayr (5f) in recent months, the latter success gained under today's rider Elle-May Croot. Could still be easily handicapped but the outside stall is likely to make it tougher to pull off front-running tactics this afternoon.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Windsor 26/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 6f12y Goo 12826/0755 @ Pontefract 18/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 6f GS 1255 @ Newcastle 26/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR - · 6f Std 12826/0956 @ Nottingham 26/04/2026 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR 60 · 6f18y Goo 135 · below its mark26/04/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Catterick 30/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 58 · 5f GF 135 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 58 par30/056OR 586 @ Wetherby 04/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 59 · 5f110y Goo 133 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Windsor 15/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 64 · 5f21y Goo 134 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 64 par15/066OR 646 @ Ayr 20/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 64 · 5f GF 134 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 64 par20/076OR 64projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-20Ayr61st2nd−1
2026-06-15Windsor65th6th−1
2026-06-04Wetherby61st2nd−1
2026-05-30Catterick63rd4th−1
2026-04-26Nottingham613th14th−1
2025-09-26Newcastle53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0726/0415/0620/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength80%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/07/20257th80/10%45%+0.45
18/09/20255th40/10%50%+0.50
26/09/20253rd22/10%0%0.00
26/04/202613th10/147%14%-0.33
30/05/20263rd12/137%75%+0.38
04/06/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
15/06/20265th11/486%56%-0.30
20/07/20261st7/282%100%+0.18