10
The Tunguska Event
3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 63
Pontefract · FBS Chartered Accountants Chaplins Club Handicap · 5f 3y
#3
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength41%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Leicester | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Newcastle | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Doncaster | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Catterick | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-07 | Pontefract | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-02-10 | Newcastle | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/11/2025 | 5th | 8/11 | 96% | 20% | -0.76 |
| 01/01/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 14% | -0.46 |
| 22/01/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 10/02/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 07/04/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 92% | +0.24 |
| 21/05/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 14/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 85% | +0.37 |
| 25/06/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 55% | -0.17 |
| 22/07/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 57% | -0.28 |