2
Alfa Whiteburd
5yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 80
Pontefract · Bet With Jayne - Your Local Bookmaker Handicap · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
1/2
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
26%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength39%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Pontefract | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Chester | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Southwell | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Doncaster | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-24 | Newcastle | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-11 | Chelmsford City | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/2025 | 17th | 9/1 | 53% | 24% | -0.29 |
| 16/09/2025 | 13th | 8/1 | 58% | 8% | -0.50 |
| 18/11/2025 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 27% | -0.15 |
| 11/12/2025 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 24/01/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 29/03/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 18/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 17/07/2026 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |