6
Emperor Caradoc
7yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 75
Pontefract · Bet With Jayne - Your Local Bookmaker Handicap · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Nottingham | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Nottingham | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Thirsk | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-02 | Pontefract | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Leicester | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Thirsk | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength58%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/2025 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 12/03/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 29/03/2026 | 13th | 8/1 | 58% | 25% | -0.33 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/5 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 02/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 16/06/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 21/07/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 57% | -0.28 |