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8

Sugar Baby

8yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 71

Pontefract · Bet With Jayne - Your Local Bookmaker Handicap · 6f

#9

Rank

Odds

28/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Four-time winner in 2025 and, after a couple of encouraging efforts, opened account for this season when keeping on well at Doncaster in June. Not on a going day at York since but the type to bounce back.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 8.4 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 21/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 68 · 4f214y Sta 131 · beat its mark21/09/2025 · OR 68 par21/095OR 685 @ Redcar 17/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 68 · 5f217y Goo 136 · beat its mark17/10/2025 · OR 68 par5 @ Newcastle 01/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 70 · 6f Std 135 · beat its mark01/11/2025 · OR 70 par1/115OR 705 @ Newcastle 22/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 70 · 6f Std 130 · beat its mark22/11/2025 · OR 70 par4 @ Thirsk 02/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 70 · 6f Goo 125 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 70 par2/054OR 704 @ Redcar 25/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 69 · 5f217y Goo 119 · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Thirsk 16/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 67 · 6f Goo 134 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 67 par16/065OR 675 @ Doncaster 20/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 67 · 6f2y GF 135 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 67 par4 @ York 24/07/2026 · Pos 19th of 21 · OR 71 · 6f Goo 127 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 71 par24/074OR 71projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-24York419th19th0
2026-06-20Doncaster51st2nd−1
2026-06-16Thirsk55th6th−1
2026-05-25Redcar47th7th0
2026-05-02Thirsk48th8th0
2025-11-22Newcastle57th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0922/1116/0624/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength30%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/09/202511th9/153%23%-0.30
17/10/20251st9/153%100%+0.47
01/11/20252nd10/147%92%+0.44
22/11/20257th9/153%40%-0.13
02/05/20268th16/116%13%-0.03
25/05/20267th16/116%40%+0.24
16/06/20265th20/10%60%+0.60
20/06/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
24/07/202619th28/10%10%+0.10