9
Willolarupi
5yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 65
Pontefract · Bet With Jayne - Your Local Bookmaker Handicap · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Pontefract | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-10-06 | Pontefract | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-08-25 | Southwell | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-08-06 | Pontefract | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-07-16 | Catterick | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-06-27 | Doncaster | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength31%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 89% | +0.23 |
| 19/05/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 09/06/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 27/06/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.40 |
| 16/07/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |
| 06/08/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 25/08/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 69% | -0.12 |
| 06/10/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 17/07/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |