1
Anzac Day
5yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 78
Pontefract · Napoleons Casino Bradford Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 2m 1f 27y
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength49%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Pontefract | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Worcester | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-09 | Ffos Las | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-07-01 | Chelmsford City | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-05-24 | Goodwood | 2 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-04-21 | Kempton | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 3
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength6%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 3. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10/2023 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 25/10/2023 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 21/04/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 77% | +0.01 |
| 24/05/2025 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 43% | -0.12 |
| 01/07/2025 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 09/09/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 22/05/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 56% | +0.08 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |