IvyArcIvyArc
3

Division Day

4yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 65

Pontefract · Napoleons Casino Bradford Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 2m 1f 27y

#2

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual purpose performer who stuck to his task well when adding to tally on the level (1½m) at Doncaster in June. Laboured effort back over hurdles at Worcester next time and left the impression an end-to-end gallop would have suited better at York (2m) on latest outing. Cheekpieces on for 1st time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Southwell 27/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 61 · 1m6f21y Std 133 · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 61 par27/096OR 614 @ Redcar 04/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 62 · 1m5f218y Goo 118 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 62 par4 @ Market Rasen 04/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 2m125y GS 1544/1244 @ Wetherby 27/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 2m Sft 1543 @ Doncaster 23/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 2m128y Sft 143 · HIGHER CLASS23/0134 @ Sedgefield 04/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 114 · 2m3f188y Goo 146 · below its mark04/02/2026 · OR 114 par6 @ Doncaster 05/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 62 · 1m3f197y GF 138 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 62 par5/066OR 624 @ Worcester 17/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 111 · 2m Gd 153 · below its mark17/06/2026 · OR 111 par4 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 65 · 2m56y Goo 120 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 65 par11/074OR 65projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 3
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-11York45th5th0
2026-06-17Worcester44th4th0
2026-06-05Doncaster61st3rd−2
2026-02-04Sedgefield42nd2nd0
2026-01-23Doncaster32nd1st+1
2025-12-27Wetherby44th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0927/125/0611/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 3
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength46%

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 3. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/09/20251st7/282%100%+0.18
04/10/20252nd9/276%83%+0.07
04/12/20257th33/10%0%0.00
27/12/20254th100/10%57%+0.57
23/01/20262nd40/10%86%+0.86
04/02/20262nd1/195%89%-0.06
05/06/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
17/06/20264th10/1195%57%-0.38
11/07/20265th10/147%50%+0.03