5
Starlit Sky
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 71
Presque Isle Downs · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
8/13
Win Prob
97%
Place Prob
81%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 8 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength71%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 15/08/2025 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 67% | -0.24 |
| 13/09/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 27/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 78% | -0.08 |
| 25/05/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |
| 17/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 29/06/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 8/13 | 97% | 86% | -0.11 |