Expresso Bay
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 87
Presque Isle Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/11
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-04-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-01-16 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 30/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 27/11/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 16/01/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 13% | -0.56 |
| 26/04/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 08/05/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 24/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 15/07/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |