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4

Fistfulofmoney

3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 88

Presque Isle Downs · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f 110y

#5

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength73%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Churchill Downs 09/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 5f Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS9/05C6C6 @ Presque Isle Downs 03/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 98 · 4f110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/06/2025 · OR 98 parC1 @ Saratoga 05/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 94 · 6f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/07/2025 · OR 94 par5/07C1OR 94C5 @ Woodbine 12/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 83 · 5f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/07/2025 · OR 83 parC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 09/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 82 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/09/2025 · OR 82 par9/09C6OR 82C8 @ Tampa Bay Downs 26/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 80 · 5f110y Fas 118 · below its mark26/04/2026 · OR 80 parC6 @ Presque Isle Downs 26/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 79 · 5f110y Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/05/2026 · OR 79 par26/05C6OR 79C5 @ Presque Isle Downs 08/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 79 · 6f110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 79 parC5 @ Presque Isle Downs 29/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 85 · 6f Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/06/2026 · OR 85 par29/06C5OR 85projClass-projected finish: 4th of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-29Presque Isle Downs?7th4th+3
2026-06-08Presque Isle Downs?3rd0th+3
2026-05-26Presque Isle Downs?3rd1st+2
2026-04-26Tampa Bay Downs?5th5th0
2025-09-09Presque Isle Downs?4th2nd+2
2025-07-12Woodbine?4th0th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0512/0726/0529/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/05/20252nd10/147%86%+0.38
03/06/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
05/07/20255th25/10%20%+0.20
12/07/20254th10/147%25%-0.22
09/09/20254th1/195%25%-0.70
26/04/20265th3/184%20%-0.64
26/05/20263rd9/153%50%-0.03
08/06/20263rd10/147%71%+0.24
29/06/20267th14/126%0%-0.26