6
Shorty Mac
7yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 65
Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
19%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-05 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength12%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 30/01/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 22/04/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 05/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 25/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 02/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 22/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |