3
Waterloo Sunset
9yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 71
Presque Isle Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
68%
Place Prob
46%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-05-20 | Mountaineer | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2024-12-09 | Mountaineer | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2024-11-13 | Mountaineer | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2024-10-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength11%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08/2024 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 10/09/2024 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 14/10/2024 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 27/10/2024 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 56% | -0.02 |
| 13/11/2024 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 09/12/2024 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 20/05/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 13/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/07/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |