3
So Grand
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 63
Presque Isle Downs · Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
7/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-06-23 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-06-03 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-03-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-02-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-01-17 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength27%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 26/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 88% | -0.03 |
| 17/12/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 17/01/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 88% | +0.01 |
| 15/02/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 05/03/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 03/06/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 80% | -0.15 |
| 23/06/2026 | 5th | 4/11 | 98% | 33% | -0.65 |
| 03/07/2026 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 20% | -0.71 |