4
Drunk On Sake
5yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 74
Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
65%
Place Prob
49%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-17 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-10-13 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength64%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06/2025 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 09/07/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 13/08/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 13/10/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 17/12/2025 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 26/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 22/06/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 08/07/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 22/07/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 86% | -0.06 |