Smokin' Hot
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 80
Presque Isle Downs · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#6
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Thistledown | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-04-07 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/02/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 02/03/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 23/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 07/04/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 20% | -0.68 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 20/05/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 16/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 23/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 27/07/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 14% | -0.46 |