3
Frosty Beer
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 85
Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 6f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: -2.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 10th | 13th | −3 |
| 2026-03-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-03-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-02-08 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-01-18 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 8th | −4 |
| 2025-11-04 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength39%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 45% | +0.19 |
| 12/09/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 24/10/2025 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 10% | -0.43 |
| 04/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 88% | -0.01 |
| 18/01/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 73% | -0.06 |
| 08/02/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 13/03/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 56% | -0.02 |
| 28/03/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 21/06/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |