5
Lord Of Mischief
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 99
Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 6f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
93%
Place Prob
72%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-08-04 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-07-14 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-05-27 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-05-02 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength42%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/12/2024 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 11/02/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 10/03/2025 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 02/05/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |
| 27/05/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 14/07/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 04/08/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 24/09/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 15/07/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |