4
Wicked Genius
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 64
Presque Isle Downs · Race 7 - Allowance · 6f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-07-30 | Penn National | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2024-11-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2024-11-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2024-10-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2024-09-14 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength39%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/12/2023 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 20/07/2024 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 23/08/2024 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 60% | -0.33 |
| 14/09/2024 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 06/10/2024 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 38% | -0.41 |
| 03/11/2024 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 23/11/2024 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 45% | -0.23 |
| 30/07/2025 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 14% | -0.74 |
| 28/04/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |