Undergrad

4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 54

Presque Isle Downs · Race 8 - Claiming · 1m 70y

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength32%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.1

Today:

Class gap: +0.4

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-17	Saratoga	?	9th	9th	0	1.0
2026-06-21	Belmont At The Big A	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-04-02	Aqueduct	?	6th	5th	+1	5.2
2026-02-20	Aqueduct	?	6th	5th	+1	5.2
2026-02-05	Aqueduct	?	1st	-1th	+2	5.0
2025-12-31	Aqueduct	?	4th	5th	−1	4.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 8

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength0%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
31/12/2025	4th	8/1	58%	63%	+0.05
05/02/2026	1st	5/4	93%	100%	+0.07
20/02/2026	6th	13/8	91%	17%	-0.75
02/04/2026	6th	5/2	87%	17%	-0.70
21/06/2026	5th	9/4	88%	33%	-0.55
17/07/2026	9th	12/1	37%	0%	-0.37