4
L'avvocato
7yo Gelding · 10-2
Saratoga · Race 1 - A. P. Smithwick Memorial Handicap - Grade 1 · 2m 3f
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲4
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: -4.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-13 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 8th | −4 |
| 2025-07-24 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-16 | Saratoga | ? | 9th | 13th | −4 |
| 2024-09-05 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 12th | −4 |
| 2024-08-12 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 12th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength34%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10/2021 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 91% | +0.03 |
| 17/11/2021 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 90% | -0.06 |
| 19/01/2022 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 12/08/2024 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 05/09/2024 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 45% | +0.19 |
| 16/07/2025 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 24/07/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 13/08/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 21/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |