8
Mctigue
7yo Gelding · 11-2
Saratoga · Race 1 - A. P. Smithwick Memorial Handicap - Grade 1 · 2m 3f
#1
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
99%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2023-08-23 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2023-08-02 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2023-03-14 | Cheltenham | 1 | 0 | ||
| 2023-03-04 | Kelso | 2 | 13th | 14th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 8
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength61%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2022 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 15/10/2022 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 13/11/2022 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 29% | -0.61 |
| 26/12/2022 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 04/03/2023 | 13th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |
| 02/08/2023 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 23/08/2023 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 78% | -0.06 |
| 03/06/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 05/07/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |