6
Roja Redemption
6yo Gelding · 10-2
Saratoga · Race 1 - A. P. Smithwick Memorial Handicap - Grade 1 · 2m 3f
#2
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲6
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -5.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-13 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 7th | −4 |
| 2025-07-17 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-06-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 9th | −6 |
| 2024-11-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 10th | −7 |
| 2024-10-17 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 10th | −7 |
| 2024-09-21 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 9th | −7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength98%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/02/2024 | 11th | 9/1 | 53% | 9% | -0.44 |
| 24/02/2024 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 29% | -0.29 |
| 13/08/2024 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 21/09/2024 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 17/10/2024 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |
| 08/11/2024 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 13/06/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 17/07/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 13/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |