5
Salted Carmel
5yo Gelding · 10-2
Saratoga · Race 1 - A. P. Smithwick Memorial Handicap - Grade 1 · 2m 3f
#7
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲5
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 8.7 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -4.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 9th | −4 |
| 2025-10-03 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2025-08-31 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 6th | 11th | −4 |
| 2025-07-30 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 9th | −6 |
| 2025-07-03 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 10th | −4 |
| 2025-06-06 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 8
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength64%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 12/03/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 02/05/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 78% | -0.04 |
| 06/06/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 03/07/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 30/07/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 31/08/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 03/10/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 29/06/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |