7
Smart Uncle
6yo Gelding · 10-2
Saratoga · Race 1 - A. P. Smithwick Memorial Handicap - Grade 1 · 2m 3f
#5
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲4
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -4.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2025-10-18 | Far Hills | ? | −4 | ||
| 2025-08-31 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2025-08-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2024-10-19 | Far Hills | BHA62 | 3rd | 9th | −5 |
| 2024-09-01 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 8
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength84%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06/2023 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 28/07/2023 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 78% | +0.09 |
| 13/10/2023 | 9th | 9/4 | 88% | 27% | -0.61 |
| 13/08/2024 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 89% | +0.20 |
| 01/09/2024 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 91% | +0.30 |
| 19/10/2024 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 13/08/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 31/08/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |