3
St James The Great
5yo Gelding · 10-6
Saratoga · Race 1 - A. P. Smithwick Memorial Handicap - Grade 1 · 2m 3f
#4
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength3%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.7
Today:
Class gap: -2.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Far Hills | ? | −4 | ||
| 2025-08-27 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-30 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2025-06-22 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 11th | −5 |
| 2024-08-22 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 11th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength70%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/2024 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 56% | -0.21 |
| 25/05/2024 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 08/07/2024 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 27/07/2024 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 22/08/2024 | 6th | 7/4 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 22/06/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 30/07/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 27/08/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 05/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |