2
Take Your Seats
5yo Gelding · 10-4
Saratoga · Race 1 - A. P. Smithwick Memorial Handicap - Grade 1 · 2m 3f
#8
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲5
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 9.1 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -4.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-11 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 10th | −4 |
| 2025-08-07 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 10th | −5 |
| 2025-07-17 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 8th | −5 |
| 2025-02-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 13th | −7 |
| 2025-01-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 10th | −8 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength43%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/2024 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 19/09/2024 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 14/12/2024 | 8th | 3/1 | 84% | 22% | -0.62 |
| 08/01/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 21/02/2025 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 17/07/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |
| 07/08/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 11/09/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |