1
Beau Cheval
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 79
Saratoga · Race 10 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength93%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 26/04/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 38% | -0.20 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 63% | -0.03 |
| 03/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 64% | +0.37 |
| 28/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 89% | +0.31 |