Classic Commander
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 82
Saratoga · Race 10 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 5.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-06-13 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-05-01 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-04-18 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-03-22 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-02-14 | Aqueduct | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 23/11/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 31/12/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 14/02/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 22/03/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 18/04/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 01/05/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 11/07/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |