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9

Followill

3yo Colt · 8-9 · OR 70

Saratoga · Race 10 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y

#12

Rank

Odds

80/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength30%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 22/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 5f110y Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS22/08C6C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 13/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 74 · 1m 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 74 par13/06C6OR 74C9 @ Saratoga 25/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 68 · 1m110y Fm 121 · below its mark25/07/2026 · OR 68 par25/07C9OR 68projClass-projected finish: 8th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-25Saratoga?4th4th0
2026-06-13Belmont At The Big A?9th6th+3
2025-08-22Saratoga?4th1st+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0813/0625/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength57%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/08/20254th20/10%40%+0.40
13/06/20269th33/10%0%0.00
25/07/20264th80/10%63%+0.63