Nonno Joe
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 71
Saratoga · Race 10 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#14
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-01-09 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-11-21 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/2024 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 22/09/2024 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 26/10/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 70% | -0.17 |
| 21/11/2025 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 38% | -0.48 |
| 09/01/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 01/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 17/05/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 44% | -0.16 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 28/06/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 22% | -0.57 |