Poppy's Ticket
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 69
Saratoga · Race 10 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
5/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-04-17 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-03-22 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-02-12 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-01-10 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2025-11-14 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 14/11/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 10/01/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 12/02/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 22/03/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 17/04/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 01/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 90% | -0.03 |