2

Vitalize

5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 69

Saratoga · Race 10 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y

#13

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move2
Strength63%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Aqueduct 07/11/2024 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 85 · 6f Fm 122 · below its mark07/11/2024 · OR 85 par7/11C9OR 85C6 @ Aqueduct 01/12/2024 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 91 · 1m Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/12/2024 · OR 91 parC6 @ Aqueduct 29/12/2024 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 89 · 6f110y Slo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/12/2024 · OR 89 par29/12C6OR 89C6 @ Aqueduct 05/01/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 87 · 1m Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/01/2025 · OR 87 parC6 @ Aqueduct 14/02/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 87 · 7f Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/02/2025 · OR 87 par14/02C6OR 87C6 @ Aqueduct 25/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 82 · 1m Fm 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/04/2025 · OR 82 parC6 @ Belmont At The Big A 02/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 80 · 1m Fas 125 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/05/2025 · OR 80 par2/05C6OR 80C9 @ Aqueduct 19/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 79 · 7f 126 · below its mark19/04/2026 · OR 79 parC9 @ Belmont At The Big A 13/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 68 · 1m110y 126 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 68 par13/06C9OR 68projClass-projected finish: 10th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-13Belmont At The Big A?6th6th0
2026-04-19Aqueduct?9th9th0
2025-05-02Belmont At The Big A?4th1st+3
2025-04-25Aqueduct?3rd0th+3
2025-02-14Aqueduct?2nd-1th+3
2025-01-05Aqueduct?3rd0th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/115/012/0513/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 14
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength26%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/11/20244th4/179%67%-0.12
01/12/20245th14/126%50%+0.24
29/12/20244th5/287%50%-0.37
05/01/20253rd8/158%60%+0.02
14/02/20252nd7/163%88%+0.24
25/04/20253rd4/179%82%+0.03
02/05/20254th2/189%25%-0.64
19/04/20269th7/163%0%-0.63
13/06/20266th9/488%29%-0.60