Carmen Amalia

3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 64

Saratoga · Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight · 7f

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

47%

Place Prob

40%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼1

Strength39%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.3

Today:

Class gap: +0.8

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-05	Saratoga	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-06-13	Belmont At The Big A	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 7

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
13/06/2026	5th	16/1	16%	0%	-0.16
05/07/2026	2nd	25/1	0%	88%	+0.88