Slow Kara

3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 77

Saratoga · Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼2

Strength30%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C4.2

Today:

Class gap: +1.8

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-04-04	Aqueduct	?	6th	0th	+5	5.0
2026-03-01	Gulfstream	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-01-23	Gulfstream	?	4th	4th	0	6.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 7

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▼

Strength8%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
23/01/2026	4th	14/1	26%	57%	+0.31
01/03/2026	2nd	15/2	61%	86%	+0.25
04/04/2026	6th	9/1	53%	29%	-0.24