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9

Boxed Wine

5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 85

Saratoga · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f

#4

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength34%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Belmont At The Big A 18/10/2024 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 87 · 1m110y Fm 120 · below its mark18/10/2024 · OR 87 par18/10C8OR 87C5 @ Aqueduct 17/11/2024 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 88 · 1m110y Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/11/2024 · OR 88 parC5 @ Belmont At The Big A 22/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 93 · 1m Fm 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/06/2025 · OR 93 par22/06C5OR 93C5 @ Saratoga 05/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 89 · 1m1f110y Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/07/2025 · OR 89 parC8 @ Saratoga 15/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 84 · 1m Fm 125 · below its mark15/08/2025 · OR 84 par15/08C8OR 84C5 @ Saratoga 29/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 79 · 1m1f Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/08/2025 · OR 79 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 13/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 80 · 1m110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/10/2025 · OR 80 par13/10C5OR 80C5 @ Belmont At The Big A 25/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 80 · 1m1f 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 80 parC5 @ Saratoga 03/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 86 · 1m1f Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/06/2026 · OR 86 par3/06C5OR 86projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-03Saratoga?4th3rd+1
2025-10-25Belmont At The Big A?4th3rd+1
2025-10-13Finger Lakes?1st0th+1
2025-08-29Saratoga?1st0th+1
2025-08-15Saratoga?8th10th−2
2025-07-05Saratoga?6th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/105/0713/103/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength34%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/10/20245th11/271%64%-0.07
17/11/20246th25/10%44%+0.44
22/06/20257th20/10%25%+0.25
05/07/20256th12/137%29%-0.08
15/08/20258th10/147%22%-0.25
29/08/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
13/10/20251st15/890%100%+0.10
25/10/20254th16/116%50%+0.34
03/06/20264th20/10%50%+0.50