Lady Firefoot
8yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 93
Saratoga · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | -1th | +5 |
| 2026-02-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Aqueduct | ? | 9th | 3rd | +5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 14/09/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 05/10/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 08/11/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 01/01/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 06/02/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 01/05/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/06/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 21/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |