Ontario
5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 89
Saratoga · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#9
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-03-14 | Fair Grounds | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-02-17 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-01-22 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | 7th | 7/4 | 91% | 14% | -0.77 |
| 25/10/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 27/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 91% | +0.20 |
| 22/01/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 17/02/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 14/03/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 44% | -0.44 |
| 23/04/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 15/05/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |
| 26/06/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |