8
Purloin
5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 93
Saratoga · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#7
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-01-04 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-20 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-09 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-11 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-06-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 9
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength46%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/01/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 30% | -0.17 |
| 23/04/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 05/06/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 19/06/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 11/09/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 09/10/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 20/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 04/01/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 06/02/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |