7
Serendipity
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 94
Saratoga · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼1
Strength35%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.4 /10 (raw 1.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.4
Today:
Class gap: +1.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-06-28 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | -5th | +5 |
| 2025-05-09 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-03-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength88%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 09/05/2025 | 2nd | 1/2 | 97% | 50% | -0.47 |
| 28/06/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 05/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |