Unreasonable
5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 93
Saratoga · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 1f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
82%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | -2th | +5 |
| 2025-08-28 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-07-19 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-06-06 | Saratoga | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-04-18 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/2024 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 31/08/2024 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 17% | +0.11 |
| 21/09/2024 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 18/04/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 64% | -0.15 |
| 06/06/2025 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 18% | -0.19 |
| 19/07/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 28/08/2025 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 86% | -0.10 |
| 01/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |