7
Imagine John
3yo Colt · 8-9 · OR 85
Saratoga · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
34%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength62%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: +0.9
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-05-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-10-24 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-08-30 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-07-24 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength47%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/06/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 05/07/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 24/07/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 30/08/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 04/10/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 24/10/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 89% | +0.52 |
| 08/05/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |