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2

Mr. Hooligan

3yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 84

Saratoga · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

13/8

Win Prob

25%

Place Prob

23%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength57%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Keeneland 24/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 66 · 6f 119 · below its mark24/10/2025 · OR 66 par24/10C9OR 66C6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 09/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 73 · 1m39y 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/01/2026 · OR 73 parC6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 07/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 76 · 1m39y Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/02/2026 · OR 76 par7/02C6OR 76C9 @ Tampa Bay Downs 11/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 69 · 7f 119 · beat its mark11/03/2026 · OR 69 parC6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 11/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 74 · 6f 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 74 par11/04C6OR 74C6 @ Tampa Bay Downs 01/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 75 · 7f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/05/2026 · OR 75 parC5 @ Presque Isle Downs 18/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 89 · 6f 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 89 par18/05C5OR 89C5 @ Presque Isle Downs 15/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 94 · 6f 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/06/2026 · OR 94 parC5 @ Presque Isle Downs 15/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 88 · 6f 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 88 par15/07C5OR 88projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-15Presque Isle Downs?1st-1th+2
2026-06-15Presque Isle Downs?8th6th+2
2026-05-18Presque Isle Downs?2nd0th+2
2026-05-01Tampa Bay Downs?3rd2nd+1
2026-04-11Tampa Bay Downs?1st0th+1
2026-03-11Tampa Bay Downs?1st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/1011/0318/0515/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength73%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/10/20259th20/10%27%+0.27
09/01/20265th25/10%20%+0.20
07/02/20268th20/10%13%+0.13
11/03/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
11/04/20261st20/10%100%+1.00
01/05/20263rd4/179%60%-0.19
18/05/20262nd7/282%83%+0.02
15/06/20268th11/271%13%-0.59
15/07/20261st13/891%100%+0.09