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5

Rochester

3yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 80

Saratoga · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f

#7

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Churchill Downs 05/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 6f 1195/11C9C7 @ Oaklawn Park 27/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 76 · 1m 120 · below its mark27/12/2025 · OR 76 par27/12C7OR 76C9 @ Oaklawn Park 13/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 66 · 6f 122 · below its mark13/03/2026 · OR 66 par13/03C9OR 66C9 @ Churchill Downs 09/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 69 · 6f110y 118 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 69 par9/05C9OR 69C7 @ Churchill Downs 12/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 76 · 6f 120 · below its mark12/06/2026 · OR 76 par12/06C7OR 76projClass-projected finish: 8th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-12Churchill Downs?5th5th0
2026-05-09Churchill Downs?1st3rd−2
2026-03-13Oaklawn Park?6th8th−2
2025-12-27Oaklawn Park?9th9th0
2025-11-05Churchill Downs?3rd5th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/1127/1213/039/0512/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength49%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/11/20253rd25/10%78%+0.78
27/12/20259th7/163%0%-0.63
13/03/20266th9/153%17%-0.36
09/05/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
12/06/20265th5/174%50%-0.24