6
Sharons Beach
3yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 93
Saratoga · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/6
Win Prob
25%
Place Prob
23%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength47%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-04-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-23 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-09 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/2025 | 7th | 2/1 | 89% | 14% | -0.75 |
| 09/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 23/01/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 20/02/2026 | 1st | 1/4 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 08/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 89% | -0.04 |
| 29/04/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 89% | -0.01 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 88% | -0.08 |