Tripp's Promise
3yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 93
Saratoga · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-06-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-01-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 26/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 29/11/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 03/01/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |
| 01/03/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 04/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 25/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 89% | +0.28 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 17/07/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |