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9

Abrigado

3yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 84

Saratoga · Race 7 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

85%

Place Prob

51%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength64%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 02/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 6f110y 119 · HIGHER CLASS2/08C6C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 13/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 80 · 6f Fm 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/09/2025 · OR 80 par13/09C6OR 80C9 @ Churchill Downs 11/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 83 · 6f 118 · below its mark11/06/2026 · OR 83 par11/06C9OR 83projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-11Churchill Downs?4th4th0
2025-09-13Belmont At The Big A?5th2nd+3
2025-08-02Saratoga?5th2nd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0813/0911/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 11
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength46%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/08/20255th15/261%43%-0.18
13/09/20255th11/1094%56%-0.39
11/06/20264th5/287%57%-0.30