Draft Riots
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 74
Saratoga · Race 7 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
8/13
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-04-09 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-04-25 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 07/06/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 09/04/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 40% | -0.48 |
| 31/05/2026 | 6th | 8/13 | 97% | 17% | -0.80 |