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4

Holy Dancer

4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 61

Saratoga · Race 7 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

#7

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength82%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: +1.6
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Gulfstream 24/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 77 · 1m Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/05/2025 · OR 77 par24/05C6OR 77C9 @ Saratoga 11/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 54 · 6f110y 119 · below its mark11/07/2025 · OR 54 parC6 @ Finger Lakes 05/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 48 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/08/2025 · OR 48 par5/08C6OR 48C6 @ Finger Lakes 25/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 48 · 1m70y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/08/2025 · OR 48 parC6 @ Finger Lakes 16/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 52 · 6f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/09/2025 · OR 52 par16/09C6OR 52C9 @ Gulfstream 26/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 58 · 6f Fas 122 · below its mark26/12/2025 · OR 58 parC6 @ Gulfstream 08/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 63 · 1m Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/02/2026 · OR 63 par8/02C6OR 63C9 @ Gulfstream 26/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 62 · 6f Fas 123 · below its mark26/02/2026 · OR 62 parC7 @ Gulfstream 27/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 60 · 7f Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 60 par27/03C7OR 60projClass-projected finish: 7th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-03-27Gulfstream?4th2nd+2
2026-02-26Gulfstream?5th5th0
2026-02-08Gulfstream?6th3rd+3
2025-12-26Gulfstream?3rd3rd0
2025-09-16Finger Lakes?5th2nd+3
2025-08-25Finger Lakes?7th4th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0525/088/0227/03
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength37%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/05/20256th20/10%0%0.00
11/07/20256th50/10%0%0.00
05/08/20252nd25/10%80%+0.80
25/08/20257th16/116%33%+0.18
16/09/20255th20/10%43%+0.43
26/12/20253rd25/10%50%+0.50
08/02/20266th40/10%0%0.00
26/02/20265th16/116%20%+0.04
27/03/20264th50/10%57%+0.57