1
Ashikidah
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 97
Saratoga · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength70%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-19 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 2nd | -4th | +5 |
| 2025-09-19 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-28 | Deauville | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-06-19 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-05-30 | Senonnes-Pouance | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength80%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10/2024 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 78% | -0.10 |
| 19/11/2024 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 06/05/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 11% | -0.26 |
| 30/05/2025 | 2nd | 4/6 | 96% | 86% | -0.11 |
| 19/06/2025 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 28/08/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 77% | +0.14 |
| 19/09/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 19/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 94% | +0.26 |
| 09/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |